Coronavirus reveals our fragility. Our civilization’s fragility. Climate Change crisis is hitting us. The window for correcting ourselves is small. Universe confirms and seeks us to take the natural ways of life, living, livelihoods, linkages, leadership, learning and love. Natural Living is the way forward. Let us reflect, plan and act. Let us mobilize and galvanize ourselves for the changes required. Livelihoods. Products. Services. Pace. Technologies. Movement(s), Campaign(s), Network(s), Coalition(s), Organization(s), Enterprise(s), Foundation(s), Mission(s) and Program(s) have to be towards the same.
From the Present to the Future
Corona Times are progressing depressingly. Officially, about 1.5 million infections and about 0.1 million deaths. India is currently slightly slow – 5000+ infections, 150+ deaths. Stage 3, Local transmission is on the threshold. Lock Down may be extended, may be another 14-28 days. Gradual lifting may last 100 days. Testing, Tracing, Treating, Teamwork and Tracking (as Arvind Kejriwal says) are our action items. Life is more important than slowing down of economy for a while. Let us stay safe, stay home if we can. Work from home. Let us continue soap handwash; no face touches; maintain minimum distance; no groups. Let us shield elderly, infants, and people with severe health conditions, with care and dignity. Let us be engaged as much as we can and remain positive. Let us plan for serving four – families with deaths; families with infected; families affected; and families migrating back.
History tells us that Pandemics reshape societies in big ways. Antonine Plague (Measles, smallpox – 0165-0180 AD, 5 million deaths) let Roman Empire fall. Justinian Plague (bubonic – rats and fleas – 0541-0542 AD, 40 million deaths) almost annihilated the civilization. Black Death (bubonic plague – rats and fleas – 1347-1352 – 200 million deaths) was the greatest catastrophe ever. New world smallpox (variola virus – 1520, 30 million deaths) depopulated 90% of the populations affected. Great plague of London, 1665, caused 100,000 deaths. The cholera pandemics, 1817-1923 (V. cholerae bacteria) caused 1.0 million deaths, across almost all societies. Yellow fever, late 1800s (mosquitoes, viral) caused 150,000 deaths, and changed the capital of USA to Washington. Mumbai plague (1890-1960) has caused 10 million deaths in India. Spanish flu, 1918, from H1N1 caused 50 million deaths, from 500 million infected. Isolation, quarantines were used to slow the spread. Asian flu, 1957, from H2N2, caused 1 million deaths. Swine flu, 2009, from H1N1, caused 200,000 deaths, from 20% of world’s population infected. Now, Coronavirus may affect most of the world’s population, infect not less than 100 million people, and deaths may be 1 million. In India, I still think, infections would be 10 million, and deaths would be 100,000. If the curve flattens, and if we succeed in developing vaccine, and effective treatment protocols, these numbers may be limited a 10-20% of these numbers. The frequency of such pandemics are likely to increase, in future. The planet is seeking ‘rest’ often. Our ways of living has to change and become more natural.
Kerala is showing ways forward. Bhilwara is showing. Many states are showing the ways. Quarantine, long enough – 28 days. Understanding the ways of the virus. An infected starts showing symptoms from day 4, starts recovery from day 15 through day 28, to recover fully and achieve long-term immunity. Some may not show symptoms at all. Some may require medicines. Tracing. Screening almost all. Testing. Government taking all the costs. Mores testing facilities. Augment and equip Healthcare, including beds, ventilators, ICUs, and hospitals. Healthcare professionals and workers. Accommodation – hotels, homestays. Proactive Governance. Strict social-physical distancing. Lock down. Lockdown within Lock down. Core zone, Buffer zones of Hotspots. Ration and cash to the poor. Essentials to people, at the doorstep. Community kitchens, food-kits for migrants, without work. ‘No need to migrate back’ message, assurance. People’s Solidarity. Across party lines. Across faith lines.
UN’s ILO Report indicates that 6.7% of working hours are being wiped out globally. This is about 195 million jobs worldwide. Globally, 2 billion people, and In India, 400 million people, in informal economy, may fall deep into poverty. Incidentally, India leads with numbers in informal sector. The sectors that are at risk include hotels, manufacturing, retail, and other services. At least 40 million people may slip into unemployment. While 80% of global workforce is affected, 40% of these are at high risk of lay off, reduction in wages etc., particularly at the low-end of ‘pay’. Stocks have crashed, except for one lift a couple of days ago. We are going back by a year or more. May be 10% drop in GDP. Therefore, we must augment, improve and/or build newer safer, fairer, and more sustainable systems. We need to support small enterprises, employment and incomes. We need to get more from people rather than machines. We need to stimulate economy and jobs. We need grants. Loans with no interests. And new emerging areas to invest.
We need to discipline ourselves and practice living. While we do this, we also need to be future ready. We need to be in NFL Movement. Active. In Leadership or otherwise. Across Geographies. All spheres. LPRD and beyond. Urgently, but, with less resources. Within new norms of ‘slow down’ living. Towards ‘ikigai’. In sync with nature. Being frugal. Happiness within. With life. In field. Be local. Across the planet at the same time. Let us ‘see’ the world. Let us build ourselves. At least 100,000 of us. And 10-100 million in our institutions. Let 1000 core, in each core area, take charge.
Do we get it? We have to change. TINA. Our ways of living. Living lives of leisure and sufficiency. Our ways of learning. Our ways of leading. Our ways of communicating. Our ways of spending time, energy and money. Our ways of celebrating. Our ways of expressing our solidarity. Our ways of entertaining ourselves. Our ways of caring our people. Our ways of saying and ensuring life matters. With augmented self-help, mutual support. Our ways of urbanization and our ways of treating rural life. Our ways of re-ruralization. Our ways of hygiene. Our ways of security. Our emotional, social, spiritual ways. Our ways of collectives, democracy and governance. Our behaviours, our games, our transactions.
Syndicate Bank’s T Anant Pai shows a way (thanks; Diwakar R). Amidst all this, some banks merged into other banks and disappeared. They include Andhra Bank and Syndicate Bank. Dr Anant Pai was the founder of Syndicate Bank in 1920s. In due course, it emerged as a premier wealth generator. Beliefs included; To benefit one sustainably, one has to benefit many; rural headquarters; and wealth for and at the bottom. Low or no entry barrier (read fee, 0.25 paise). A talented doctor was asked to be in the village for good. The discovery was that he was not earning enough because the people around him were not earning enough. So, he focussed on the women (of fisherfolk) and urged them to save, even a few coins. Slowly, money increased. Anant urged them to buy cows and give milk to children for their nutrition. He could finance and they could repay by milk. Slowly, women agreed one by one. Within a short while, there were so many cows in the village that Pai could not purchase all their milk. Therefore a milk cooperative was formed. To handle the amount of money coming in, a bank was started at Manipal. With first branch at Udupi in 1925. Then came, weavers’ cooperatives. Schools. Colleges. Engineering and Medical Institutions. Management Institute. To grow the bank, Anant used to look around for good businessmen, who had the urge to grow and both the ability and willingness to repay the amounts borrowed. He helped a trader to get a yarn licence from the government. That trader was Dhirubhai Ambani.
Notwithstanding support to Dhirubhai, TA Pai shows us to be rooted in the nature, pursing investing in the active relentless servant leaders, management workers, caring mentors and social entrepreneurs for LPRD.
Lock Down is getting extended. Hotspots are being tightened. Lifting Lock Down is going to be gradual. This window is frustrating with hope. Uncertainty with promise. Suffering with hope of relief from suffering. Curfews. 144s. No groups. 3 feet distance. Small movements. At home. Active, not really. Plastic, not really. Postponed expenditures. Unrealized incomes. Reduced relevance, and opportunities. Rejig. Meditation, Reflection. Re-vision, re-purpose. May not get back. May not fund work. May not get the minimum that is needed.
These are transition times. Yet, we need to get going. The tough gets going. We are tough. Mentally. Emotionally. Physically. Spiritually. Let us live, let the life live. Let us unlearn and learn. Let us remain useful flowing in N.
Join us in the world of yoga – Saapekshachalanayoga for 7L. World is going forward, but in circles, into N way.